Investments

Since the subprime mortgage mess hit the markets like a bombshell earlier this year, economists and analysts have been working harder than ever to forecast its future effects. Forecasting potential outcomes is big business in the financial markets, and there is no dearth of “experts” and TV talking heads telling us what lies ahead. Their record of prediction is pretty […]

Groundbreaking investment research from 1992—supported by other studies since then—indicates that value stocks and small stocks outperform the stock market as a whole. Recently, professors Eugene F. Fama of the University of Chicago and Kenneth R. French of Dartmouth—authors of the 1992 study—have identified another important component of stock returns: the higher returns of small and value stocks are due […]

Among the many peculiar word constructions former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is remembered for, there is one that applies to all forecasts of the future: the “unknown unknowns.” In his words, they are “the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” That phrase, incidentally, was already commonly used in the Defense Department and elsewhere in its shortened version, “unk-unk.” It […]

Despite impressive evidence that most short-term movements in the markets are random, professional and amateur investors alike continue to throw hundreds of billions of dollars at strategies designed to beat the market. The common perception is that certain securities are “mispriced”—that is, investors have bid them too high or too low based on their inherent value.The human mind has evolved […]

It’s a simple fact: investors abhor losses. They engage in all sorts of strategies and practices in order to avoid or minimize losses. At the same time, investors are often excitable and greedy. When a segment of the investment market goes through a prolonged upswing, they throw money at it as they chase recent returns. Many academic studies, as well […]

Happy New Year!  The year 2006 was a great one for equity investors around the world as stock prices rose in 46 of the 50 countries whose equity market returns are reported by MSCI. Among these, only Israel,Jordan,Thailand, and Turkey saw their local stock market indexes slump for the year. The 2006 return for US stocks was 15.32% according to […]

The beginning of  a new year is a good time to take stock and to review basic investment principles. Anyone investing in the stock and bond markets could do no better than to review the timeless and valuable lessons taught by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. Known as the father of securities analysis and as Warren Buffett’s stock market tutor, Graham, […]

With all the sizzle and excitement in the stock market, bonds don’t always get the respect they deserve from individual investors. After all, how can you get excited over returns of 5% or 6% in bonds when you can have profitable periods of 25%-plus in stocks? It’s easy: when stocks hit their inevitable down periods, bonds can prop up a […]

When Michael Steinhardt tells you not to invest in hedge funds, you had better take notice. Steinhardt left the hedge fund business in 1995 after running one of the most successful funds ever. He wrote a recent guest editorial in The New York Times excoriating the industry’s marketing and warning most investors to avoid such funds. “As recent history shows, the outsized […]